Trading Evolution

Markets are never wrong - opinions often are

Bear Market

After worst ever first two weeks of trading news are full of articles about collapsing oil prices, problems in China and everything bad in the world. I like to use hard data and to see how bad the sentiment really is. According to Google Trends which still has partial data for January 2016 the spike in interest already exceeded prior spikes in August 2011 and August 2015 both of which have been great buying opportunities. The level of interest new is as high as it was in 2008-9.

Update 1/22: 

Interest in "bear market" went even higher. It is now as high as it was during last recession 8 years ago. Statistics like this and market action on January 20, 2016 indicates to me that we probably hit medium term market low two days ago and stocks will not revisit it for a few month at least and might rally back above 2000 on S&P.

Bear market in US stocks now became more likely

According to Mark Hulbert if the first trading day of the year is negative bear market is more likely this year:

So what does it mean for S&P 500? Based on high of 2,134.72 in May of 2015 the S&P 500 should close below 1,707.77 sometime in 2016.