Trading Evolution

Markets are never wrong - opinions often are

Rate hikes are on hold for now

After today's FED announcement it is clear that any future rate hikes this year are on hold until further notice.

  • "Economic activity has been expanding" - gone. Replaced with "Economic growth slowed late last year" and "inventory investment slowed"
  • "Inflation is expected to to rise to 2 percent" - gone. Replaced with "Inflation is expected to remain low"
  • Risks added "closely monitor global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook"

All of the above indicates that unless market improves and/or economy strengthens lifting energy prices FED is on hold so if you were thinking about refinancing because you were afraid about raising interest rates, you have plenty of time.

Federal Reserve starts to get nervous

Like I mentioned before Federal Reserve is unlikely to continue hiking rates if current market volatility stays or increases. Now we have a confirmation of that. Reuters reports that Fed's Kaplan is hinting: four hikes not a sure thing in 2016.

Four U.S. interest-rate hikes are "not baked in the cake" for the Federal Reserve this year, particularly given global stock market volatility set off by fears over a cooling Chinese economy

Worst-ever four-day start to a year

S&P 500 dropped by 4.9% since Monday. This is the worst start of the year for the markets and all FED had to do is raise rates 0.25%. Just imagine what would happen if they continue raising rates as they are promising now. The market is clearly hinting to the Federal Reserve that it is not a good idea and they usually listen so I would not expect any rate hikes soon.