Trading Evolution

Markets are never wrong - opinions often are

Oil seems to be holding above $30

The market tried very hard to break below $30 today but it seems that $30 might be new support this week. Although there are usual weekly API and EIA reports which can push it below.

Update: $30 is still holding even after API and EIA data releases. If market decides to rally from here it can be very powerful move which can easily take CL to $40.

Oil is going to rally soon

After the worst first week of trading it is good to remind everybody that the market does not always go down. Stocks are paying close attention to the price of oil recently and if oil starts to recover so will stock prices. Seasonal factors are a strong force in price of any commodity and oil is not an exception. Next week marks the end of negative seasonal factors and the start of positive seasonal tail wind for oil. If oil starts to stabilize and go higher the markets will feel better after rough start of the year.

Think again before trying to pick bottom in oil using ETFs such as USO

ETFs such as USO are not holding actual oil unlike gold ETF GLD which actually holds gold bars. USO uses futures contracts to track oil prices and they are pointing up or using fancy terms in contango now. USO fund each month has to sell front contract and buy more expensive next month contract. Because of that effect when last year oil prices dropped from $53.49 to $37.13 or drop of 30% the USO ETF went down from $20.36 to $11.00 or drop of 46% which is 16% difference thanks to contango and expenses. Looking forward into 2016/17 (here for example) 20% increase from $37 to $44.21 is already priced in into future contracts so if oil raises less than 20% USO investors will lose money. Oil needs to rally at least 25% to $46 for investment in USO to break even if you include expenses.