Trading Evolution

Markets are never wrong - opinions often are

Bear Market

After worst ever first two weeks of trading news are full of articles about collapsing oil prices, problems in China and everything bad in the world. I like to use hard data and to see how bad the sentiment really is. According to Google Trends which still has partial data for January 2016 the spike in interest already exceeded prior spikes in August 2011 and August 2015 both of which have been great buying opportunities. The level of interest new is as high as it was in 2008-9.

Update 1/22: 

Interest in "bear market" went even higher. It is now as high as it was during last recession 8 years ago. Statistics like this and market action on January 20, 2016 indicates to me that we probably hit medium term market low two days ago and stocks will not revisit it for a few month at least and might rally back above 2000 on S&P.

Free real-time charts for futures, stocks, bonds and Forex

Want free real-time streaming quotes and charts for stocks, Forex, and futures? There are few websites that do that but so far I prefer the one from The only problem with it, it has lots of ads and it is hard to get to the chart you want. I found that you can go directly to their chart production server and no ads, no pop-ups just free real-time streaming charts. Of course you get what you pay for (which is nothing) but it is good enough to look quickly at something.

S&P 500 futures

Type CME:US500 to get data for S&P 500 futures which is ES symbol on CME.

Crude Oil futures

Type CL for crude oil futures which has the same CL symbol on CME.

Dow Jones futures

Type US30 for Dow Jones futures which has YM symbol on CBOT.


Traders sold stocks to fund PowerBall (sarcasm)

Today US equity traders sold stocks to fund purchases of PowerBall tickets. The Powerball jackpot is up to $1.5 billion. The cash grand prize is estimated at $930 million. If the jackpot gets big enough, it's actually worth your while to play the lottery. If one assumes there is only one winner then the odds are in your favor. And people are playing. Lottery officials said 85.8 percent of possible number combinations had been sold.

Oil seems to be holding above $30

The market tried very hard to break below $30 today but it seems that $30 might be new support this week. Although there are usual weekly API and EIA reports which can push it below.

Update: $30 is still holding even after API and EIA data releases. If market decides to rally from here it can be very powerful move which can easily take CL to $40.