After worst ever first two weeks of trading news are full of articles about collapsing oil prices, problems in China and everything bad in the world. I like to use hard data and to see how bad the sentiment really is. According to Google Trends which still has partial data for January 2016 the spike in interest already exceeded prior spikes in August 2011 and August 2015 both of which have been great buying opportunities. The level of interest new is as high as it was in 2008-9.
Interest in "bear market" went even higher. It is now as high as it was during last recession 8 years ago. Statistics like this and market action on January 20, 2016 indicates to me that we probably hit medium term market low two days ago and stocks will not revisit it for a few month at least and might rally back above 2000 on S&P.
Want free real-time streaming quotes and charts for stocks, Forex, and futures? There are few websites that do that but so far I prefer the one from investing.com. The only problem with it, it has lots of ads and it is hard to get to the chart you want. I found that you can go directly to their chart production server http://tvc4.forexpros.com and no ads, no pop-ups just free real-time streaming charts. Of course you get what you pay for (which is nothing) but it is good enough to look quickly at something.
S&P 500 futures
Type CME:US500 to get data for S&P 500 futures which is ES symbol on CME.
Crude Oil futures
Type CL for crude oil futures which has the same CL symbol on CME.
Dow Jones futures
Type US30 for Dow Jones futures which has YM symbol on CBOT.
Today US equity traders sold stocks to fund purchases of PowerBall tickets. The Powerball jackpot is up to $1.5 billion. The cash grand prize is estimated at $930 million. If the jackpot gets big enough, it's actually worth your while to play the lottery. If one assumes there is only one winner then the odds are in your favor. And people are playing. Lottery officials said 85.8 percent of possible number combinations had been sold.
The market tried very hard to break below $30 today but it seems that $30 might be new support this week. Although there are usual weekly API and EIA reports which can push it below.
Update: $30 is still holding even after API and EIA data releases. If market decides to rally from here it can be very powerful move which can easily take CL to $40.
Like I mentioned before Federal Reserve is unlikely to continue hiking rates if current market volatility stays or increases. Now we have a confirmation of that. Reuters reports that Fed's Kaplan is hinting: four hikes not a sure thing in 2016.
Four U.S. interest-rate hikes are "not baked in the cake" for the Federal Reserve this year, particularly given global stock market volatility set off by fears over a cooling Chinese economy